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Pac-12 success depends on Washington in the Rose

How should we define a successful bowl season for the Pac-12, which is in dire, desperate need of a successful bowl season?

It depends whether Washington wins the Rose Bowl, which, one could argue, is the conference’s most significant postseason game since the Huskies were in the playoff two years ago.

Actually, check that. It’s more important than UW’s semifinal duel with Alabama because back then, the conference wasn’t coming off two substandard regular seasons and one atrocious postseason.

Which makes the Huskies’ looming date with Ohio State the Pac-12’s most significant postseason game since Oregon’s appearance in the national championship at the end of the 2014 season.

Washington’s date is momentous because it’s the Granddaddy and because it’s Ohio State and because it’s Power Five champ against Power Five champ and because of the Pac-12’s less-than-stellar showing on the national stage in the past 12-24 months.

The conference has seven bowl games.

It is facing six opponents from the Power Five (one ACC, two Big 12, three Big Ten).

It is favored in four, a pick (even) in one, a slight underdog in one and a sizable underdog in one.

Given that breakdown, our assessment is as follows:

Four wins is perfectly reasonable goal, if not a notch too low.

If those four wins include the Rose Bowl, the postseason is a success.

If the four wins don’t include the Rose Bowl, well, then we’re in the mixed-bag realm.

Three wins, including the Rose Bowl: Passable.

Three wins and no Rose Bowl: Bad.

Three wins (or fewer) and Washington blasted off the field: Awful.

Generally, the Hotline expects a reversion to the mean. A combination of circumstances (matchups, coaching changes, etc.) led to the epic fail of 2017, making the quality of play in the Pac-12 appear worse than it is relative to other conferences.

(Of course, if you add the gruesome results from Sept. 2018 to the calculation, that appearance begins to look like reality.)

Two days from the first kickoff, this much is clear:

A season that began with Washington as the conference’s flag-bearer ends in the same fashion.

Season: 41-40-1
Five-star special: 3-6

All picks against the spread
Lines taken from (for entertainment purposes only – unless it’s not)

Dec. 15: Las Vegas Bowl
Arizona State vs. Fresno State
Line: Arizona State +3 (total: 54)
Comment: Even without N’Keal Harry, the Sun Devils are intriguing — far more than if they were favored. Combine bad memories from the ’17 Sun Bowl with Manny Wilkins playing his final game and you’ve got more than enough motivation. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs had their eyes on a bigger prize: The New Year’s Six.
Pick: Arizona State

Dec. 26: Cheez-It Bowl
Cal vs. TCU
Line: pick (total: 39.5)
Comment: Neither team scores much and both are among the best in the nation on defense. TCU has loads of postseason experience and will be aiming for a winning season. Will Cal simply be satisfied with the experience — it’s the first bowl game for the bulk of the roster — or play with the grit it displayed against the top teams in the North? We’re leaning to the former.
Pick: TCU

Dec. 28: Alamo Bowl
Washington State vs. Iowa State
Line: Washington State -3.5 (total: 55)
Comment: The Cyclones’ pass defense can’t compare to those that gave WSU so much trouble in November (Cal and UW), but Matt Campbell is one of the top young coaches in the country. Key question: How will the Cougars handle the psychological blows of losing the Apple Cup, missing out on the division and conference titles and getting snubbed in the New Year’s Six selection process?
Pick: Iowa State.

Dec. 31: Sun Bowl
Stanford vs. Pittsburgh
Line: Stanford -6.5 (total: 52)
Comment: The Cardinal is back in El Paso for the second time in three years, facing a six-loss team from a bad division that got clobbered in its conference title game. In other words: Stanford should win handily if it can muster the urgency under less-than-riveting circumstances. This would be a bad loss for the conference, folks — arguably the worst loss for the Pac-12 short of Washington getting run off the field.
Pick: Stanford

Dec. 31: Redbox Bowl
Oregon vs. Michigan State
Line: Oregon -3 (total: 48)
Comment: Apples to apples: 5-4 and fourth place in the Big Ten East against 5-4 and fourth place in the Pac-12 North … and in Pac-12 territory, no less. The Spartans will make every first down difficult for Justin Herbert, but can they score enough to keep it close into the fourth quarter: MSU averaged just 8.6 points in its final three games (Ohio State, Nebraska and Rutgers).
Pick: Oregon

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