Date: Wedensday, 3/6/19
Tip-Off Time: 7:00 pm PT
TV: Pac-12 Networks
Radio: KOMO 1000 AM/97.7 FM and TuneIn
Location: Seattle, Washington
Betting Line: Washington -6
Oregon State 2018-19 Statistics
Record: 17-11 (9-7)
Points For per Game: 73.4 (131st)
Points Against per Game: 69.1 (105th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 110.7 (53rd)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (134th)
Strength of Schedule: +2.6 (90th)
Oregon State Key Players
C-Kylor Kelley, Jr. 7’0, 215: 7.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 3.5 bpg, 63.7% FG, 61.1% FT
The Lane Community College transfer has been one of the big surprises in the Pac-12 and is leading the nation in blocked shots while shooting 62.5% from the field. The Huskies did a great job containing him in their first meeting (3 points, 4 rebounds, 0 blocks) as he’s a really poor offensive rebounder for someone his size which is where big men normally kill UW.
F- Tres Tinkle, Jr. 6’8, 225: 20.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 4.0 apg, 48.3% FG, 31.2% 3pt, 77.5% FT
If Oregon State had won a few more games then Tinkle would be a leader for Pac-12 player of the year with his crazy stat line. The Huskies did a great job containing Tinkle in the first half of their last meeting so we’ll see if he makes counter-adjustments this time around.
G- Alfred Hollins, So. 6’6, 195: 5.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.3 apg, 38.3% FG, 24% 3pt, 62% FT
Hollins is clearly the 5th banana of this starting group and his inability to shoot from outside is keeping OSU from being a truly elite offensive team. He’s also in just the 6th percentile on defense per Synergy Sports so he’s the clear weak link. Zack Reichle has been increasingly taking his playing time as Hollins has played more than 15 minutes just once in the past 7 games after meeting that threshold in each of the previous 8 games.
G- Ethan Thompson, So. 6’5, 190: 13.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 3.6 apg, 44.7% FG, 36.4% 3pt, 81.1% FT
Ethan had a fantastic game in a losing effort against Arizona State last Sunday with 20 points, 9 assists, and 8 rebounds. He was abysmal against Washington last time with 8 turnovers as he couldn’t figure out the Husky zone. But if he plays like he did against ASU then this game will be much closer.
G- Stephen Thompson, Sr. 6’4, 190: 16.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 3.4 apg, 43.4% FG, 32.4% 3pt, 72.8% FT
Unless the Beavers meet the Huskies in the Pac-12 title game this will be the last time that UW faces the eldest Thompson brother. Thank God. Thompson is shooting 29% from 3-pt range in conference play against the other 10 teams but was 6/11 from deep and scored 30 points in their most recent meeting. For whatever reason he just has supreme confidence when playing the Dawgs.
Oregon State Shot Chart
Hec-Ed has been a refuge for the Huskies all season in times of trouble and they badly need a little home cooking this week. A win tonight would put Washington on the doorstep of being a declared a lock for the NCAA tournament and keep them in contention for getting up to a #7 seed.
The odds are good as Washington is 14-0 at home this season. The average score of a Pac-12 UW home game: 72-57. The average score of a Pac-12 UW road game: 69-66. No conference opponent has gotten any closer than Colorado did in the Huskies’ last home game which still resulted in a 9 point victory. And the Huskies beat the Beavers by 10 points in Corvallis at the end of January when they had a 99% win expectancy with 12 minutes to go. There is no logical reason why Washington should lose this game.
But of course there should’ve been no way that the Huskies could lose at Cal and yet lose they did. The recent performance of this team on the road is a real and troubling trend but if they come out and win by double digits tonight then we’ll hope it is quarantined solely to road games.
Oregon State has enough star power to win almost any single game they play in. Stephen Thompson always seems to step up against Washington (11 of 25 from 3 against Hop-led teams), Tres Tinkle is the leading scorer in the conference, Ethan Thompson almost put up a triple double in his last game, and Kylor Kelley leads the country in blocks. When you frame it in those terms that team should never lose.
The Beaver offense actually played pretty darn well (mostly because Stevie was on fire from outside) but they game up 1.2 points per possession to Washington so their defense was the big problem. Naz Carter was a dominant force in that first game tying his career high with 18 points on 8 of 11 shooting with 3 assists and 0 turnovers. You can be sure that Oregon State will gameplan against Carter this time around and the Huskies will likely need Noah Dickerson to step up bigger (7 points and 5 rebounds).
No matter how this game goes, the Huskies need to show that they understand that they can’t afford to take a possession off from here through the rest of the season. Oregon State is capable of erasing a 10 point lead in a few minutes if they get hot and the Huskies will need to win every game to be in a position to go on a run in the NCAA tournament. But one step at a time. Just win.
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